Feasibility Study on Afghanistan Trip
One day, I was pondering on Pakistan map. Peshawar is just inches away from Afghan border, while Kabul is basically as far away as Islamabad. In history, Khyber Pass is the strategic gateway for foreign expedition forces to enter into India-Subcontinent. Terhan, Kandaha, Kabul, Peshawar, Lahore are important knots on the Hippie Trail. After the US invasion of Afghanistan in 2001, fewer and fewer travelers coming into Pakistan.
一天，我看着巴基斯坦地图发呆，白沙瓦距阿富汗边境仅一箭之遥，喀布尔跟伊斯兰堡一样远。在历史上，Khyber Pass是各路远征军进入印度次大陆的通道。德黑兰、坎大哈、喀布尔、白沙瓦、拉合尔是Hippie Trail的重要节点。2001年，美军发动阿富汗战争，进入巴基斯坦的旅行者越来越少，来往于欧亚大陆的背包客被迫改道伊朗的扎黑丹和巴基斯坦的Quetta。
Based on travelogue of an American backpacker and my own experience, I have enclosed below a Feasibility Study on Afghanistan Trip. 以下是我对阿富汗旅行的可行性研究，参考了美国背包客的阿富汗游记，并结合我的自身经历。
Is it safe?
不太安全，但开车也不太安全。在中国城市里，死于交通事故的人远多于在深山失踪的驴友，但后者比前者更具有新闻轰动效应。安全是一个很主观的判断。据我观察，人们对安全形势的判断一般取决于情感而非理性。有两个典型的例子。第一个是SARS：流行性感冒、疟疾、黄热病和交通事故比SARS夺去了更多人的生命，但是人们并未因此而取消出门旅行。第二个是恐怖袭击：从统计上讲，在路上的某些不可预见的突发事件比恐怖袭击更为危险，对长途旅行者尤为如此。如果你生活在恐惧之中，那么你太愚蠢了。可绝大多数人不会利用客观的统计分析来评估风险。
迄今，我已在巴基斯坦逛了四个月，没有发生任何事故。巴北部山区的道路状况不佳，而西藏的路况也是如此（路况近年有所改善）。由于巴基斯坦司机比中国司机更有礼貌，不用担心汽车跟行人抢路，走在伊斯兰堡的马路上比北京安全多了。的确，我在白沙瓦差点儿被偷，有人在乌鲁木齐的大巴扎也被偷了吧。
即便如此，巴基斯坦和阿富汗是否比其它国家更安全呢？Not really. 它们既不是世界上最危险的地方，也不是你跟情人度假或者享受“间隔年”的地方。有些事情仍需值得关注，比如某些穆斯林的行为比较怪异，让（外国）人无法接受。阿富汗到处有地雷，塔利班武装十分活跃，整个国家的安全状况不佳，如果你在农村地区旅行，生死自负。路上有很多检查站，外国人必须登记。去坎大哈等南部地区旅行是比较愚蠢的做法。
如果在阿富汗旅行，你必须提高警觉，不要失去common sense，要考虑陌生人接近你的动机，要怀疑一切，要对整个国家安全形势和最新动态有所了解。如果你不打算了解这些，那么你最好别来了。
这里没有什么外国游客，所以也没有人想袭击你，根本没有人想到你会来这里。最容易遭受恐怖袭击的目标是美国使馆、警察局、军队、政府机关和五星饭店，因为美国人和警察每天都会定时出现，其行动和路线比较容易预测。像我这样的旅行者，每隔几天出现在不同的城市，每天去不同的地方转悠，神出鬼没。恐怖分子若想抓我，须沿途追寻我的行踪，需要很多的人力、物力和财力。倘若抓到美国人质，恐怖分子可向美国政府索取上百万美元的赎金。倘若抓到中国人质，恐怖分子的财运不佳，因为中国政府不会赎我的。:-)
当陌生人问你的旅行计划和住宿地，不要忌讳说谎。请遵循以下三条定律：1）你永远不记得你下榻旅店的名字、也不记得它在哪里，可上了出租车之后你会忽然想起来；2）你永远也不会在你计划的那天旅行；3）你永远也不会在你说的那个时间出现在你说的那个地方。
阿富汗人早已厌倦了战争，对塔利班的活动不感兴趣。欢迎外国人来到他们的国家，并且尽可能提供帮助。巴基斯坦人比较热情，多次为我带路，无偿提供餐饮和食宿。但只要遇到一个极端分子，你就倒霉了。另一个好处是没有骗子。没有游客，也就没有人编织谎言靠游客发财。当这里的局势稳定下来，旅游业逐渐恢复的时候，骗子们也会随之而来。
中国的背包客们，若打算来巴基斯坦和阿富汗旅行，一定要赶早哦。当它成为第二个尼泊尔的时候，你就迟到了。
签证：比较容易获得。一般在巴基斯坦申请签证，签证费30美元。有两种：30天的签证，有效期为30天；15天的签证，有效期为90天。有时可能需要出示工作证明。在白沙瓦领事馆申请阿富汗签证最容易。
入境：陆路入境的最佳路线是从白沙瓦出发经Khyber Pass。另一条路线是从奎塔出发由南部入境，但自2003年5月，这条路变得不安全。从伊朗入境，可由Mashad到Herat（赫拉特），然后去Kandahar（坎大哈）。目前这条路也不安全，出发前必须了解安全情况。另外，从三个中亚邻国也有入境口岸。
飞机：Ariana提供多条航线到达喀布尔。PIA（巴基斯坦国际航空）提供从伊斯兰堡到喀布尔的航线。
交通：Ariana 有多条航线由喀布尔到达赫拉特和Mazar-e-Sharif。坐汽车更有意思，但可能安全性差些。车型包括14座和7座的面包车以及4座的出租车。路况比较差，司机开车比较疯狂。冬季的路段可能因积雪和冰而受阻。喀布尔的汽车站分布在城市的四周，取决于你去那个方向。
住宿：大多价格高，但条件差。喀布尔有高档饭店，但你得付大钱。阿富汗是世界上最贫穷的国家之一，因此你不要期望太高。
Things to bring：衣服，地图，开明的态度，耐心，一本字典，关于阿富汗历史的常识，关于伊斯兰的常识，咖啡和茶，相机和家乡的照片。
Things to know : 阿富汗最新的安全状况，伊斯兰教的常识，阿富汗历史，Dari 常用词汇，你该去的地方。
Should you go? 不要问我该不该去，我不是你妈。如果你不能决定，你就别去了。我愿意回答一些有深度的问题，以帮助你决定该做什么。尽可能了解阿富汗的情况，你做出的决定才会有价值。
Background reading
Kabul Caravan - The best of the travel resources out there. Good mixture of historical and practical information.
Afghan Web - An excellent portal to a variety of general information on Afghanistan.
Short note to Afghanistan - Practical information based on one Hong Kong Chinese's visit in late 2002.
Triple Gem Gallery - A bit of travelogue and a lot of photos of one individual's travel in August and September 2002.
Books
An Unexpected Light, by Jason Elliott - First rate travel writing of recent forays into Afghanistan.
An Historical Guide to Afghanistan by Nancy Hatch Dupree. Last published in 1977, this is still the number one guidebook to Afghanistan's sites and more current than you might imagine. The book has been out of print for years, but you can find old copies for sale all over Kabul. It's a comprehensive listing of all the attractions of Kabul as of 1977 as well as some then-practical travel information.
Afghanistan: A Short History of Its People and Politics, by Martin Ewans. 2002. 338-page succinct history of Afghanistan.
Islam - Idiot's Guide to Understanding Islam by Yahiya Emerick.
Is it safe?
Not really, but then again neither is driving a car. Safety is subjective and relative to your own level of comfort and definition of what is and isn't an acceptable risk. It's been my experience that people base safety decisions more on emotion than on fact. I think there are two excellent examples of this. The first is the panic over SARS, a disease that took significantly fewer lives than influenza, malaria, dengue fever, road accidents, and a host of other potential events which people face every day in Asia (tourists included) and around the world and do not cancel travel plans over. The second is the panic over terrorism, again statistically speaking there are far greater risks than a terrorist act which is something you have no control over, so you're an idiot if you live in fear of it. But most people don't use a more objective statistical analysis in assessing risks, preferring, I suppose, to leave such endeavors to actuaries.
That said, is Afghanistan a safe travel destination? Broadly speaking, no, not really. While it's not the most dangerous place in the world, it's not exactly a place ready to take on tour groups and gap years, either. Obviously, people are traveling in Afghanistan and doing so without incident. I had no problems. But there are things to be careful about. Driving habits are atrocious. Land mines are everywhere. The Taliban is becoming more active. Security around the country is not good, meaning that if you choose to travel in the countryside, which I did, realize you are on your own. Yes, there are road blocks and vehicle searches coming in and out of most towns, but in between... sometimes nothing. As of May 2003 travel in the Kandahar and Southeastern regions by westerners was another foolish idea. If you want to go, by all means go, but be aware.
The best thing I can recommend is that if you plan to visit Afghanistan you exercise a higher than usual level of awareness of what's going on around you, don't lose your common sense, consider the motives of strangers, be skeptical, and keep abreast of the latest situation around the country. If this seems like useless and vague information than you might not be ready for Afghanistan.
With so few tourists, especially western ones, there really isn't anyone hanging around looking to prey on you, because no one is expecting you to be here in the first place. It's targets like the US embassy, ISAF personnel, US military, UN/NGO offices that would stand a better chance of being hit as they are there every day following more predictable patterns. As a tourist, you can be unpredictable and when strangers ask questions about your plans, where you stay, etc, don't be timid to lie.
A few of Gordon's travel lies:
1.) Gordon can never remember the name of where he stays or its exact location yet somehow always manages to remember when he's in a taxi.
2.) Gordon never travels on the day he says he will.
3.) Gordon is rarely found at the place or at the time he says he will be.
On the positive side, most Afghans are tired of war, have no interest in a Taliban resurgence (at least not a violent one), are happy to have foreigners visit, and will take care of you as best as they can. But it only takes one extremist to ruin your day.
Another refreshing aspect of travel in Afghanistan is the lack of scams. Having no tourists, there hasn't been the motivation for shady characters to cook up scams that separate gullible westerners from their cash. No doubt, when the tourists do start arriving, so too then, will the scam artists.
前面的照片有点沉重。