海洋风险评估 -- 皮划艇安全系列之三

kurtyang04 · 2014-10-21 19:54

“In the long list of things that can go wrong, one of the worst calamities that can befall a paddler, particularly a cold water paddler, is to lose his or her boat. This can happen because it blows away, it sinks, or the paddler is unable to reenter it.

More than twenty years ago, on a cold, windy day in February, I found myself – much to my surprise and dismay – swimming my guts out in near-freezing water and large, confused seas in the tide race at Cape Henlopen, Delaware. My beloved sea kayak was nowhere in sight, and unless things got better really fast, I was shortly going to wind up out in the Atlantic Ocean on Hen and Chickens Shoal, which I figured to be an even worse place for a swim on that particular day. It was, as the saying goes, a real “learning experience”.  But I’m getting ahead of myself here, so let’s backtrack a bit…

Roughly nine out of ten sea kayaking fatalities result from capsizing in cold water without the protection of a wetsuit or drysuit. At the National Center for Cold Water Safety, we promote Five Golden Rules that enable any paddler to build a strong cold water safety net.  This post examines Rule No. 5: Imagine the Worst That Can Happen and Plan for It.

When something bad happens out on the water and you’re unprepared to deal with it, you’re in trouble – sometimes big trouble.  That’s why it’s a really good idea to make a practice of thinking about everything that could possibly go wrong, and making sure you have those bases covered before you go out.”

kurtyang04 · 2014-10-21 20:06

在一长串可能出错事情，可降临到浆手，特别是冷水划桨状况下最坏的灾害之一，就是失去他或她的小船。这可能发生，因为船被风吹走，下沉，或划桨手无法回到独木舟。 （某某海峡就发生这种事，无知还自认为是英雄。）

二十余年前，在一个寒冷，2月多风的一天，在亨洛彭角，特拉华州， 我发现自己 - 很多让我吃惊和失望 - 我拼足勇气在接近冰点的水游泳自救，迷茫的大海， 大潮大浪。我心爱的皮艇是渐渐离开了视线，除非事情变得很快更好，否则我的命很快会随风而逝在大西洋上的母鸡和小鸡（名）浅滩，我想比丢船更糟糕是， 在那个特定的的地方和天游泳。那是，正如俗话所说，一个真正的“学习经验”。但是我自己走在这里前面，让我们回溯一下...

kurtyang04 · 2014-10-21 20:13

导致倾覆在冷水中的海上皮划艇死亡事故，大约十分之九没有潜水衣或干衣的保护。在皮划艇冷水安全国家中心（磨房当之无愧），我们提倡五大黄金法则，帮助任何划桨手，建立一个强大冷水的安全网。这篇文章探讨规则第5号：假设可能发生，规划最糟糕的情形。

当坏事发生在水面上，你就没有准备好对付它，你就麻烦了 - 有时是大麻烦。这就是为什么考虑一切可能出问题， 是一个非常好的主意和练习，以确保有这些准备，你才能出去远航。

kurtyang04 · 2014-10-21 22:12

Knowledge and Experience
The safety hurdle faced by many paddlers is that they don’t have enough knowledge or experience to imagine the all the things that can, and often do, go wrong – even on modest outings.  This places them at a huge disadvantage when trying to plan for the unexpected. So what can these folks do to improve their odds?  For starters, they can learn from the bad experiences suffered by other paddlers, and thereby avoid making the same mistakes – or at least be better prepared for them.

The Value of Second-Hand Knowledge
A lot of people believe there’s no way you can learn to kayak, rock climb, backpack, scuba dive, fly a plane, ride a horse, a bicycle, motorcycle or whatever just by reading about it – that the only way to really learn about that kind of stuff is by actually doing it. That’s true enough, but only up to a point – and it’s a very important point, because as it turns out, there’s a LOT of stuff that you really don’t want to learn about the hard way – by direct personal experience. Some sea kayaking examples:

kurtyang04 · 2014-10-21 22:13

*Getting totally creamed when you decide to paddle out that little inlet or river mouth “just to check things out”.
*Getting swept into a tide race or blown offshore into much rougher water even though the TV weather report you watched in the morning said nothing about dangerous tidal currents or small craft advisories.
*Watching in horror as your kayak does a “Cleopatra’s Needle” or sinks like a stone because it has no floatation. Ditto watching your kayak blow away. (More on that later.)
*Capsizing 200 yards from shore in 50F water and finding out that the guy who tried to warn you about the danger of cold water really did know what he was talking about.

*Getting really and truly lost when fog rolls in and your trusty GPS runs out of juice, breaks, malfunctions, can’t get a signal – whatever – and now it’s getting dark and cold and you don’t have a map and compass and even if you did, you wouldn’t know how to use them.

翻译随后。

kurtyang04 · 2014-10-31 22:16

知识和经验
面对许多涉水的安全困难是，他们没有足够的知识和经验来想象所有可能的事情，经常发生的问题 - 即使是在中难度的户外活动。在策划活动和估测意外时，这个将它们放置在一个巨大的劣势。那么，可以把这些人做些什么来提高自己的胜算？对于初学者来说，他们可以从坏的经验，其他人遭受的事故中学习，从而避免犯同样的错误 - 或者至少他们能有更好的准备。

二手知识的价值
很多人认为，有没有办法可以学会划皮艇，攀岩，背包，潜水，驾驶飞机，仅仅通过阅读就会骑马，自行车，摩托车或其他 - ，但真实活动才能真正了解海洋舟元素。这是真的够了，但有一点 - 这是一个非常重要的一点，因为事实证明，有东西，你真的不想了解事故的原理 - 通过直接的个人事故经验。一些海上皮划艇的例子：

kurtyang04 · 2014-10-31 22:25

*完全失控和事故状况，在当你决定要划出来那个小入海口或河口， 只是为了好奇看看， 意想不到进入事故场景。
*快速被扫进潮流，或被吹离岸， 状况很差的水，即使你在早上看电视的天气报告只字未提危险的潮流或天气对小船的警告。
*惊恐看着你的皮艇做了“埃及艳后针”或一块石头沉入大海，因为它没有上浮的装置。或者看你的皮艇被吹走。
*岸边200码外倾覆在10度的水，当你不理解， 他人试图警告你， 冷水危险， 真的不知道他在说什么。

*当大雾，您值得信赖的GPS耗尽电源，破损，故障，不能得到一个信号 - 无论 - 现在天变得又黑又冷，你没有地图和指南针，或者即使你做了，你不知道如何使用它们。

kurtyang04 · 2014-10-31 22:31

* 在黑暗中四处飘荡，瑟瑟发抖的看着船只和直升机搜索你的灯，但没有办法，因为你既没有火光，防水手电筒，手机，甚高频电台，或紧急频闪信号它们。

*打破或脱臼手指，伤口到骨头。

*前往上水点，才发现了玛丽失踪了 - 她倾覆在回头的2英里外，但没有人知道她，因为你的团队没有一个指定的断后。
* 暂时无法正常划桨，因为你的手完全麻木了 - 即使你有干衣， 能保持核心身体温暖。

kurtyang04 · 2014-11-06 17:52

*你的手暂时无法正常工作，因为完全麻木 - 即使你干衣是保持身体温温暖和休息。

导致了我45+分钟在二月在在近冰点水， 特拉华湾口的游泳，错误基本上是想象力的失败（没有预测到困难）。我完全没有预料到有皮艇， 把我甩开。 尽管我在很坚定的把握住船，上船时发生事故，是我并练习数百次翻滚后发生的意想不到。

kurtyang04 · 2014-11-06 17:58

作者随后发明了一种安全把人与船，绑在一块的特殊方法，以防类似事故发生。

这只船是皮划艇里最知名的NORDKAPP系列 ＨＭ， ３０年前版本，质量和经典不会过时。本团队也有一只，要新１３年。

kurtyang04 · 2014-12-08 23:01

中国爬山界接连出大事，具体技术我不懂，但有一点几乎肯定，肯定风险评估出了关键的错。其实　水上运动出的小事（能演变大事）很多，导致人们不得不对风险进行评估，　攀岩同学出事非常突然，评估不容易。因此记得有一年，西方死了几个大牛（书作者）。而激流和海洋舟运动，最牛的那些人出事并不多。　大概可以推断：水上运动的风险评估比攀岩相对容易，是保护自己和团队的利器，得好好利用。

kurtyang04 · 2014-12-08 23:04

在急流技术里，勘察是非常重要的技术。但海洋的勘察，谁听说过？　海洋勘测是重要一环，与定位技术息息相关。

http://tsunamirangers.com/2011/04/19/scouting-the-sea/

Scouting the Sea
by Eric Soares on April 19, 2011
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A few months ago I promised to run a column on scouting.  So here it is.  Scouting is one of the most crucial sea kayaking activities; and ironically, it is often done perfunctorily or not at all.  For logical convenience, let’s place scouting into three phases, starting with the most distant and ending with on-water scouting. 
Phase 1—armchair scouting.  This phase is practiced by most kayakers who contemplate paddling in a new location.  This involves reading up on an area, talking with local fishermen and other ocean aficionados, and poring over topo maps and sea charts.  Nowadays, before embarking, you can get weather forecasts from NOAA or the National Weather Service; and can go online to get the local surf forecast, complete with swell size and direction, wind speed and direction, tidal information, and water temperature.

kurtyang04 · 2014-12-31 18:19

翻译：

几个月前，我答应在侦察运行的写文章。侦察是最关键的海上皮划艇安全步骤之一;讽刺的是，它往往是做敷衍，或根本没有。对于逻辑的方便，让我们把侦察分为三个阶段，首先是最遥远的，并与水侦查终结。

第1阶段，扶手椅侦察。这个阶段是适合皮艇谁考虑划桨在一个新的区域。这包括读了一个区域，与当地渔民和其他海洋爱好者交谈，钻研地形地图和海图。如今，着手之前，你可以从NOAA或国家气象局天气预报;并且可以去网上获取本地冲浪预测，完成涌浪的大小和方向，风速和风向，潮汐资料和水温。

kurtyang04 · 2014-12-31 18:21

At Google Earth, you get a satellite view of Neptune's Castle on the Big Sur coast
Additionally, it is a snap to go online to Google Earth and view a satellite photo of any place in the world you might want to kayak.  Say we wanted to check out a specific rock garden on the Big Sur coast.  We could find it using Google Earth, as depicted in the photo above of a certain Neptune’s Castle.
There are also websites which feature photos and information on places you might wish to paddle.  In the photo below, obtained from the California Coast Records Project (go to www.californiacoastline.org to view the entire California coast from the air), we see a bird’s-eye view of Neptune’s Castle taken from an airplane.   Looking at the two photos, I can guess the height of the rocks, see that the clear water contains kelp, which means there are probably fish and other wildlife in the area, and note that there is a sandy beach I can land on and a trail to the highway above, which provides an escape route.  Without getting up from my easy chair, I now know a lot about Neptune’s Castle.  I can make a plan based upon Phase 1 information.  So far, so good.

kurtyang04 · 2014-12-31 18:23

这一部分主要是看卫星图，和天空鸟览图（网上资料不多），以让你对海岸线有大概的认识。